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Market news
The Nasdaq Composite Index was under the most pressure, falling 2.13 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 0.61 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.38 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.35 percent.¹²
A Volatile Week, to Say the Least
After a sluggish start on Monday, stocks rebounded on Tuesday as the chip trade led the markets higher and investors turned their attention to Q2 corporate earnings results.³
Stocks then stalled midweek as oil prices and bond yields rose and investors digested the initial Q2 reports. The S&P 500 ended just below the flatline, while the Dow traded sideways and the Nasdaq posted a modest loss.⁴
Stocks opened lower Thursday as mixed corporate updates from two of the world's largest companies soured investor sentiment. One company said it was raising its AI spending forecast for the year, unsettling investors who believed other companies might have to do the same.⁵
Sentiment turned positive Friday morning as investors cheered quarterly results and guidance from one big tech company. However, markets retreated in the afternoon as investors fretted over rising oil prices.⁶
The Importance of Guidance
Last week was one of the busiest weeks of the Q2 2026 corporate reporting season.⁵
Corporate earnings are a key driver of stock prices, so updated corporate guidance can increase market volatility. Last week, two influential companies said they intended to spend more money this year than previously expected, catching investors off guard.⁵
As more Q2 corporate reports are released, expect investors to pay close attention to any spending updates from other companies.
Connor's Insights
Too Many on One Side of the Boat
Connor Mahoney
Investment Advisor Representative
If you think back, there are always signs that the market is becoming "frothy." With each cycle, if you watch the market closely, you become better at recognizing these signals.
For example, we had the Nvidia CEO call MRVL stock "the next trillion-dollar company," sending the stock up 32% the next day despite no known material change in revenue, growth, or fundamentals.
We also had an anonymous AI infrastructure "bottleneck" investor on Twitter gain more than a million followers over just a couple of months while promoting foreign stocks that surged hundreds of percent, hoping everyone could get rich together and that stocks were somehow a positive-sum game. Sadly, it never works that way.
There has also been record use of margin here and in overseas markets (borrowing from brokers to double buying power—or more), Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire, FOMO surrounding the SpaceX IPO, the largest one-month semiconductor fund inflow ever at $19 billion, and newly minted "experts" across every corner of the tech industry publishing investment theses explaining why this or that stock should double or triple with ease.
When you see these signs, it doesn't necessarily mean the market top is imminent. Some of these developments occur early in the cycle. However, we understand that markets always move in cycles, and eventually there can be too many people on one side of the boat.
The larger herd is rarely right forever. As the market progresses, you can actually look for contrarian signals as the herd eventually turns overwhelmingly negative on stocks.
Coogle's Corner
Big Tech’s AI Gambit
Bill Coogle
Vice President
You have massive, mature, and highly profitable technology companies that had been cruising along suddenly transforming themselves into much riskier investments. They are beginning to behave more like startups, using enormous amounts of debt—or deploying nearly all of their available capital—to reinvest aggressively into their businesses in the hope that it pays off down the road.
This is what has technology investors awake at night: the nonstop spending and debt required to build out AI data centers without clearly quantifying the return on investment.
It's a gambit, for sure. Will it work out? We're watching.
Wall St. Tip
We are also keeping market seasonality in mind. We know this is typically a choppy period, and you can clearly see that. We could be setting up for further downside.
It feels as though the market is looking for excuses to sell. We are seeing larger overnight gaps, an increase in the volatility index, renewed Iran headlines, higher oil prices, sharp declines from the highs in growth stocks, and when you shake it all together, here we are.
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